Saturday, July 23, 2005

Weekly Market Review

Anecdotally speaking, there seems to be a lot more bullishness in the market. If you watch CNBC all day, like I do, you have seen a bevy of talking heads come on and wax poetically about the market's strength here and the prospects for a 2nd half rally.

That's all fine and good, as these investment managers are mostly perma-bulls anyway. It's in their best interest to stoke optimism in the market and try to bring assets in. But as I look at the sentiment indicators, I see more of a mixed picture. To wit, here is where they stand:
  • The bull/bear survey in Investor's Intelligence fell to +30 (53% bulls, 23% bears)
  • The bull/bear survey in AAII fell much further to +13 (41% bulls, 28% bears)
  • And the bulls on Market Vane remained plentiful at 69%
  • But the Specialist Short Ratio is still very low (0.19), as is the Rydex Ursa/Nova ratio (0.22)
  • And the put/call ratios are all still only in neutral territory

In sum, there are pockets of bullishness, but nothing that I would characterize as extreme. The markets have been hitting a series of new highs lately, but I would not be suprised to see a pullback at any time. After that, I would anticipate another rally attempt that will likely suck in more investors and covert more bears to the bullish side of the camp.


Post a Comment

<< Home