Wednesday, January 11, 2006

2006 Market Predictions poll

To recap, (my informal poll of portfolio managers and hedgies I speak with) last year the group produced an average forecast for the S&P 500 of +2.2%. The actual result was only slightly better at +3.0%.

This year, while the media is trying to portray the investment community as far more bullish, my pollsters produced an average forecast of only +2.4%, or SPX 1278. Not too bullish, huh?
  • The high forecast came in at +27% (SPX 1580)
  • The low forecast is for -20% (SPX 1000)

These survey results reinforce my belief that most investment managers came into the year with high cash positions, conservative asset allocations, or low net long exposures. And I think the public, for the most part, hasn't even begun to re-embrace the stock market since 2000-01.


Post a Comment

<< Home