Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Has Apple finally bottomed?

Shares of Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) are trading nicely higher today, after swooning earlier this morning. Nearly all attempts for this stock to bottom have failed, but the question remains, has AAPL finally bottomed?

The stock is off fully -33% since it peaked in mid-January. I think that such a decline likely prices in all of the concerns that are out there in the market: law of large numbers catching up with growth; Mac sales still disappointing; lawsuits from France and The Beatles, etc. None of these issues are "new".

The news today is about whether AAPL is in talks with the NFL about a new contract for exclusinve digital content. That would be big. There are also rumors swirling about a new iPhone coming out.

Today also looks like a good technical level for the stock to bottom. A look at the chart below shows that the stock had reached its 200-day moving average, often a good support area. The stock is also oversold by all of the measures on the chart. So I think it is safe to say the AAPL is in a good position to bounce. But we will have to see how stiff any overhead resistances proves.

long AAPL


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