Tuesday, April 18, 2006

FOMC Minutes Provide Additional Boost

The market was up nicely on the day when the FOMC minutes were released. The dovish comments contained in the minutes served to fuel this rally even more, and the indexes spiked to new highs on the day.

The minutes indicated that the FOMC feels the end of rate hikes is "probably near". They said that some members were worried about "tightening too much". And they also said that the slowdown in the housing market was discussed at length.

These are all good signs, and the bond market has taken them to heart. The 10-year yield has fallen further, now at 4.96%.

If bond yields stabilize and the Fed stops hiking rates, that removes two overhangs on this market. The third wildcard is oil, which needs to still be monitored.

So is the correction over? I have warned that we could get a big up day that would make it feel that way, and this could be that day. It's possible that the correction is over for now, but follow through will be the key. If the market closes strong, I would have to acknowledge that the bulls are back in control.


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