Another Bounce and Fade Dance

I want to reiterate that the volume was so light yesterday that I would not view these sessions as being as meaningful as the action will likely be once we get past Labor Day.

That said, it is what it is, and you have to repsect the price action. So this mornings bounce has already started to fade, likely exacerbated by the weaker than expected new home sales report. The yield curve is already inverted, which signals recession in the future. If the decline in the housing market accelerates, then the odds of recession likely increase.

Bond yields are falling again today, with the 10-year at 4.80%. That is a full 45 basis points below the fed funds rate. And yet there are still people calling for another rate hike.

Oil looks to me like it has topped, and this morning we took profits in one of the largest integrated companies.

The market is short-term overbought, so I am willing to hold some cash and wait for some things to pull back.
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