Payrolls Data Softer Than Expected

Nice call on taking the under on the jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose +113k vs. consensus of +145k. The softer data has the stock markets rallying across the board, as this datapoint helps seal the deal that the Fed won't raise rates next week.

Bonds are rallying a bit also, pushing the yield on the 10-year down near 4.90%. Commodities are mostly rallying as well, helping to push the materials stocks higher.

Of course, we are cheering weak data right now, because we know the Fed has gone far enough. But if weak data continues to pick up, we are going to quickly start bemoaning that the Fed has gone too far. That's the tricky part of this equation. We really need the soft landing, and that's why we dont' want housing to collapse.

This is a lot of early strength, the opposite of what we saw yesterday. Some people out there don't like it when I talk about traders heading out early to the Hamptons, and leaving the market vulnerable to being knocked down by a feather. I guess we'll see later today.