Thursday, February 15, 2007

How Will Day 2 of "Dovish Ben" Go?

The market is up a touch in the first hour of trading, after a nice day yesterday. Chairman Bernanke gave a more dovish testimony before Congress than many were expecting. He also did a nice job during the Q&A of staying on message and not wavering. Let's see how day 2 of his testimony goes, though I doubt we will see a repeat of yesterday's market action.

Oil is lower again this morning, falling below the $58 level. Bond yields are also lower so far, with the 10-year yield down another 3 basis points to 4.70%. It has now broken its recent uptrend and dropped below its 50-day support.

The NY Empire Index came in well above expectations (24.4 vs. 11.0), giving a hint of a manufacturing rebound. Regardless, with the breakout in the transports to new highs, I don't think many are worried about a big drop in economic activity.

As earnings season winds down, it looks like we had another quarter of double-digit profit growth. The market and the economy remain on solid footing, and the calls for a 2-3% correction have proven wishful thinking once again. The longer we go without one, the more likely that performance anxiety sets in and causes portfolio managers to start chasing stocks higher.

In other news and notes:
  • Asian markets rise overnight
  • Japan GDP rises +4.8%
  • Icahn, Affiliate Cut TWX Stake To 25M Shrs Vs 68.7M - DJ
  • Baker Hughes misses by $0.05, ex items
  • Laboratory Corp beats by $0.13
  • aQuantive beats by $0.06, beats on revs
  • JP Morgan Chase removed from Focus 1 List at Merrill
  • Nutrisystem target raised to $78 at BB&T
  • Nutrisystem tgt raised to $75 from $72 at Lazard
  • Qualcomm upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Oppenheimer
  • Baidu.com downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
  • TheStreet.com beats by a penny
  • Chicago Cubs, Under Armour reach partnership agreement
  • January wireless industry growth weakens in Brazil

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