Thursday, February 22, 2007

Market Wrap

The market squeezed out another very constructive day. This morning, the markets started to sell of in a hurry, and it looked like another nasty day was in the making.

But by the end of the day, the market had righted itself, and for the 2nd day in a row, the Nasdaq climbed all the way back into positive territory. That continues the recent trend of the Nasdaq outperforming the SPX.

Two of the culprits for today's weakness were rising oil and rising interest rates. Oil gained nearly a buck again today, to close just below $61. I suspect we may bounce around between $60-65 for a while, but the energy markets are volatile and hard to predict.

The yield on the 10-year Note rose nearly 4 basis points on the day to close at 4.73%. This is just above its 50-day, but still well below January's high of 4.90% and still way below the fed funds rate at 5.25%. No inflation worries there.

Semis bucked the weakness and really stood out today, rising 2.75% on a huge volume spike (see the SMH chart). Biotechs also reversed their early weakness to finish flat. Housing stocks were down the most after TOL provided a bearish outlook on housing.

On the sentiment front, the bull/bear spread in the AAII survey rose to its highest level in roughly a year. This signals more bullish entering the market, which is good. But if these high levels persist, then it would mean everyone is getting bullish and then we might be closer to some sort of correction.

Have a great night--

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