Friday, March 02, 2007

Bears Getting The Upper Hand Today

The bears are having their way with the market, and furthering pressuring the major indexes. The SPX is off -1.05%, while the small-cap RUT is down -1.70%.

But as we saw earlier in the week, investor sentiment gauges of fear are spiking again:
  • The volatility indexes are rising back to Tuesdays high levels
  • The ARMS Index is at a very high level 2.59
  • The CBOE put/call ratio is high at 1.36
  • The ISEE is also high at the equivalent of 0.94

Moreover, the 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio is hitting its second highest reading ever. The only reading higher was last May.

But as we saw back then, the huge spike in fear didn't immediately cause the market to bottom. It did a good job of stemming the decline, but then the market sort of bounced around for awhile, before forming a solid consolidation pattern from which it could launch back to new highs.


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