Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Amazon Crushes The Bears, Dow Hits 13k

I'm not sure why I mentioned Dow 13k in my headline. I think it was really to draw attention to how silly it is that this number will be flashed in the headlines all day long, while it really means very little. It is just a round number, and the Dow will likely continue to head higher. A much more meaningful number, imo, is S&P 1550 (it's all-time high). I expect this number to be taken out in the near future as well.

The market opened with a big pop this morning on the heels of some strong earnings reports and a strong economic report. But as often happens with strong opens, the enthusiasm was quickly sold into, and the market faded.

The durable goods report came in at a solid +3.4% this morning, getting a big boosts from aircraft orders. This also helped Boeing (BA) top estimates today, although the stock is lagging after management offered conservative guidance.

Amazon (AMZN) was the real surprise. The company trounced estimates, albeit aided by a lower tax rate, and raised guidance for Q2 and the full year. AMZN has pretty big short interest in it, so that caused a short squeeze from the get go. This morning, the stock gapped +20% higher. Ouch.

Asian markets were lower overnight. The 10-year yield is flat at 4.62%, and oil is higher at $65. I think oil looks vulnerable here as every trader is already long oil, due to the foregone conclusion that it is going to $70 in a heartbeat.

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