Thursday, September 13, 2007

Solid Day, but Volume Lacking

The market put in a solid day overall. It was reassuring to see the broker group (XBD) up +2.6% for the day. Retailers were also very strong, +2.1%. Semis and biotechs lagged, and were down slightly for the day.

The one thing that has been missing from the strong price action this week has been volume. Ideally, you want to see rallies come on strong volume and selloffs see lighter volume.

Over the last week, we have basically seen the opposite. The rallies have been on light volume, while the pullbacks have seen rising volume. This amounts to distribution days adding up, which puts a question market next to the current trend.

I still am not in the "retest" camp, but I am growing increasingly worried that we could see some selling resume next week. Next week, we have the important earnings reports from the major brokers, the FOMC meeting, and also quadruple options/futures expiration to boot.

I have raised some cash this week, which doesn't feel great on a day like today, but I think I will be able to put that cash to work at some point next week at better prices.


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