Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Market Hoping For Lukewarm Payroll Report

The market is slightly lower in early trading, but nothing major. This morning, ADP estimated that 58,000 jobs were added in September, which supports expectations for a payrolls report on Friday in the neighborhood of 100,000. That would be just fine for the market.

If the number is too strong, the market will likely worry that the Fed is done cutting rates. And if the number is too weak, the market will worry about recession. Tough game. Although these concerns are always most pronounced on Friday, and the subside as emotions calm down.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, with Japan higher and Hong Kong sharply lower. The Yen is also lower this morning, which is a big positive for U.S. markets.

Oil is steady near the $80 level, and bond yields are up a touch with the 10-year at 4.56%.

I think yesterday and today have been good examples of benign consolidation. We could have seen more profit taking after Monday's strong rally, but there seems to be an underlying bid below the market.


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