Thursday, January 17, 2008

Memo To Bernanke: Stop Talking

It seems that all of these Fed-heads, including Bernanke, keep making endless comments, and it just helps to drive stocks lower. They should all just stop talking. Silly Fed.

The market closed near its lows again today, although there were a handful of tech and biotech stocks that bucked the weakness.

Also, many fear guages really spiked today. And I mean really.
  • The ISEE hit a new record (intraday) low of 23
  • The CBOE put/call closed at 1.48, near panic levels
  • The volatility index (VIX) spiked +17% today

These are the types of readings that we have typically seen near prior market bottoms. Before you ask, "So is this THE bottom?", let me just say that pinpointing the exact day of the bottom is difficult.

But if you go back and look at every single market bottom during corrections over the last 5 years, you will see the same pattern repeat itself. And that pattern is that once the pain becomes unbearable to the majority of people, they all rush to sell, and that is how the market bottoms.

Look at each of these market bottoms and you will see the same indicators: a spike in the VIX, extreme high readings in the put/call ratios, rising bearishness in the investor surveys, a sharp rise in stocks making new lows, and of course that pit in your stomach that stocks will never rise again.

No one ever made a dime panicing. I am sure the market will get a nice bounce in the near-future, and that will be a better opportunity to lighten up if you need to.


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