Friday, March 07, 2008

Morning Look: Surprising Bounce After Weak Jobs Report

The much anticipated jobs report was weaker than expected, with nonfarm payrolls falling by -63,000 (vs. +20k consensus). The S&P 500 broke below the 1300 level soon after the market opened, but the selling didn't last long.

The market bottomed and began to move higher, quickly erasing all its losses. There is still a lot of time left in the session. Either the shorts will cover into the weekend and keep the markets elevated, or this early rally could still fade.

There was some speculation that the Fed could step in on a weak jobs report and cut rates again. Instead, the Fed announced it was increasing the size of its TAF auctions to $100 billion to help improve liquidity.

It remains to be seen how much this will help, but improving liquidity should be the highest priority for the Fed right now. This is the worst credit crunch I can ever remember.

Asian markets were down big overnight, from -1% to -4% in India. The Yen is lower today, but needs to be down for more than just one day. The CBOE put/call ratio was very high again this morning, at 1.33. And the ISEE was depressed at 78.

2 Comments:

At 10:49 AM, Blogger beachbumtrader said...

'worst credit crunch i can remember"

my wife and i get just about on a weekly basis, around $40,000 worth of credit in blank checks from a certain credit card co..

markets follow interest rates.

 
At 3:40 PM, Blogger J. Kahn said...

I am not talking about cash advance checks from Capital One. I mean big-time finance loans to put together a private equity deal, or to construct a new commercial building project.

These types of loans are simply not available right now, as every lender looks to deleverage and shrink their balance sheets.

If there was any bubble in the last few years, it was a credit bubble. And we know from tech that the aftermath of a bubble is long and painful.

 

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