Making A Big Bet On Housing
This morning, a report from housing industry group Dataquick said that foreclosures in California soared +39% in Q1 to 113,676. That's more than 1200 per day, and the highest since they began keeping records in 1992. Ouch.
While many are looking to call the bottom in housing, data like this make me think they are still early. I beleive the rate of declines has and will slow materially, but any bounceback will take considerable time.
I am in the process of selling an option on my house to a large company. It's basically akin to selling a call option on the appreciation of my home over the next 5 years. In return, I get a large upfront premium that I plan to invest. So the bet I am making is that stocks will outperform my house over the next 5 years. I like my odds.