Friday, May 23, 2008

Midday Update: No Buyers Ahead of Holiday Weekend

The market opened on a weak note and has stayed that way all morning. Down volume is running about 84% of total volume on the NYSE so far. So there does not seem to be many buyes around ahead of the long weekend.

I was saying all last week that I wanted to sit on the cash I had recently raised until we got a pullback, which I felt was overdue. That pullback showed up big-time this week. The S&P 500 is currently off -4.5% from its Monday highs. That's about as much of a pullback as I was looking for. At the time, I thought something in the 3-5% range could be in the cards.

Also, the S&P is right about at its 50-day average, where the market could find some support. I am reviewing my buy list, and will look to put some money to work either toward today's close or on Monday.

The hard part is figuring out where to add exposure. I think energy and materials need to pull back more, and probably the same for tech. So I will look for select names that have already pulled back, as well as areas where I recently took profits to add back to (steel, ag, nat gas).

Oil has given back most of its early gains today, which is a good sign. Yesterday's high volume reversal still looks like a short-term top to me.

The dollar remains weak today vs. the Yen and Euro. And the 10-year yield is falling 9 bps to 3.83%. The VIX is really spiking, up +9.3% today alone, and +23% for the week. The ARMS Index just hit 2.31, as the selling pressure increases.

1 Comments:

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