Trade Deficit Comes In Below Expectations

The market is lower this morning, after a big loss by AIG and more highs in oil seem to be weighing on sentiment. The weird thing is that many of the financials are higher, despite the debacle that is AIG. And most of the energy stocks are lower, even as oil makes new highs. Go figure.

AIG posted an $8 billion loss, much larger than expected. The stock has fallen -10% in the last 2 days. And Fannie Mae (FNM) priced a stock offering below yesterday's closing price, a sign of slight weakness. I though this news would have dragged the financial sector down more, but they are pretty steady. This could be a sign that all of the bad news is priced in here.

The March trade deficit came in at $58.2 billion, vs. $61.0 billion estimates. This should have a positive effect on the revisions to GDP, further dampening the recession call.

Oil is continuing its nonstop stampede higher, and touching $125 today. Hard to believe, but it is what it is. The fact that the energy stocks are trading lower hints at the notion that many investors think the move in oil is long in the tooth, and due for a correction.

Asian markets were lower overnight; the dollar is lower again today vs. the Yen and the Euro; and the 10-yr yield is down again today to 3.75%. The ARMS Index is high at 1.49, signifying heavy selling pressure.