Friday, July 25, 2008

Economic Data Better Than Expected

No one wants to pay attention to positive news right now, after all that doesn't sell newspapers or boost TV ratings, right? But today, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey came in above expectations at 61.2, up nicely from last month's 56.6 reading.

Moreover, durable goods for June rose +0.8%, also above consensus. And ex-transportation orders, durable goods rose +2.0%. June new home sales totaled 530,000, again above views. So the data was not bad, and certainly not deteriorating. But don't expect CNCB to give it much attention, it doesn't sell like headlines that read 'The Oil Crisis'.

There were also more earnings reports that were solid from Wynn Resorts (WYNN), YRC Worldwide (YRCW), and Fortune Brands (FO).

Oil was up early this morning, but has again reversed lower. Crude prices are now trading below $124. The energy stocks are mixed, while the ag and steel stocks are all higher (after yesterday's drubbing).

Asian markets were lower across the board overnight, and the dollar is up this morning vs. the Yen and Euro. The 10-year yield is higher at 4.06%.

Many were out saying yesterday's drop in the market was a signal that the relief rally was over and new lows were imminent. I think this call is premature, as sentiment remains overly negative and is likely to unwind a bit further before this rally is done.


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