Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Tech Hangs In As Market Opens Lower

There was a lot of selling pressure overnight in Asian markets, as concerns rose over the extent of a global recession and a slowdown in China. The Bank of England governor said that U.K. recession seems likely. Gee, thanks.

Nowhere are these worries more evident than in commodity prices. Oil is down -5% this morning below $68. But all the commodities are lower, including gold. The action in gold not only screams that inflation concerns are over, but that deflation concerns are surfacing.

Credit market angst is easing more, as LIBOR rates have fallen for the 8th straight day. Overnight LIBOR fell to 1.12%, its lowest rate in four years.

The dollar is higher again, pressuring commodity prices further. The 10-year yield is lower to 3.64%.

There were several good earnings reports (AAPL, VMW, EMC, MCD, WLP), but there were also some cautious ones, as companies remain uncertain about the economic environment, and several companies announced job cuts.

The Nasdaq 100 is showing relative strength this morning, as many big-cap tech stocks are bucking the weakness and trading higher. Hopefully, this will be a good "tell" for later in the day. The VIX spiked +20% at the open, highlighting the spike in fear. The put/call ratio also opened at an extremely high reading of 2.13.

Yesterday, I started to dip my toe back in the water with a purchase of the agribusiness ETF (MOO). If the market can find its footing, this beaten down sector should be due for a nice bounce.

long AAPL, MOO


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