Monday, November 17, 2008

Nothing Substantial From G-20 Meeting

The market may be expressing some disappointment with the fact that no major announcements came out of the G-20 meeting over the weekend, at least nothing investors can hang their hats on today.

The G-20 agreed to continue to use fiscal measures to help stimulate demand and help emerging markets gain access to credit. They also said no new trade barriers would be implemented for the next 12 months.

October industrial production rose more than expected, coming in at +1.3% (vs. +0.2% consensus). This was far better than September's decline of -3.7%.

Seperately, Citigroup (C) said it will cut 20% of its workforce, which is estimated at 50,000 jobs. Ouch. And the talks surrounding the auto makers continues.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, which is better than how the U.S. markets closed on Friday. The Yen is higher today, which we have been highlighting as pressuring the markets. Oil is up slightly to $58, but energy stocks are mixed.

The 10-year yield is down a bit to 3.71%. And the VIX is +3.4% higher, near last week's high, but still well below its 10/24 highs.

Calls for the week: Watch the VIX. I would like to see it break below 60 on any rallies. Also watch the Yen (FXY). It needs to break its recent uptrend, moving below 102. For the market, I want to see the S&P 500 (SPX) hold the 850 level and stabilize above 900.