Tuesday, December 09, 2008

A Low Volume Pullback, Not So Bad

The market pulled back today, which shouldn't be that surprising given that it had been up for 9 out of the last 11 sessions.

Also, volume declined today, which is an incremental positive. The S&P 500 logged back-to-back accumulation days (gains on higher volume) the last 2 days, and the Nazz has shown accumulation for 4 of the last 5 days.

So the market had gotten pretty overbought, which made it likely that a pullback was in the works. What was nice to see was that the selloff came on lower volume. Low volume pullbacks and high volume rallies are very bullish, so let's hope the pattern holds.

The financials were the weakest group today, while the semis actually bucked the weakness and gained +4.8% on the day. That helped the Nasdaq outperform relative to the other indexes (-1.5%), while small caps were down the most (-3.26%).

In addition to the semis, Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) were also higher today, which is nice to see. Energy and materials stocks were also higher on the day, despite oil closing lower. I'm not sure what to make of this exactly, other than those groups were severly oversold.

The VIX was barely higher today (+0.7%), and closed below its 50-day average for the third consecutive day. A move to even lower levels would be welcomed by the bulls, but it looks like the top is behind us.

long AAPL, GOOG, UWM

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