Monday Morning Musings

The market is sharply lower in early trading on the heels of profit taking from last week's multi-day bounce, as well as lower oil prices after OPEC decided to leave output unchanged at its meeting over the weekend.

Oil is down nearly -7% to below $51, and this is weighing on the energy and materials sectors. The dollar is higher vs. the Euro today, which is weighing on other commodity prices as well.

According to ShoperTrack RCT, Black Friday sales actually rose +3.0%, which was better than many had feared. But I am hearing people calling it a "profitless prosperity" as retailers had to heavily mark down items to get consumers to open their wallets. This means that although sales were up, margins were likely down, and profts when these companies report should reflect that.

In deal news, JNJ will acquire Mentor (MNT) for $31, which is a whopping +90% premium to Friday's closing price. This is nice to see, at least someone is taking advnatage of the depressed stock prices.

Bernanke and Paulson are both speaking seperately today. Unfortunately, these two have not been able to make the markets rally on days they speak in public.

Asian markets were mixed overnight. The Yen is higher this morning, which is not what we want to see.

The 10-year yield is down another 14 basis points to 2.81%, a shockingly low level. Some of this might be a continued flight-to-safety, but some of it is also a reflection of expectations of a sharply slowing economy.

And the VIX is up +12% to 62.1, back above its 50-day average. So most of the indicators I'm watching are not moving in the bulls' favor today. But it's still early, so let's see how the trading session unfolds.