Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Did Obama Come Up Short With Investors?

I'm not sure how much of this morning's decline is attributable to Obama's speech last night, but I did have a strong feeling going into his speech that it would be full of sound bites, light on details, and do little to inspire confidence in the markets.

I think one of the things that helped the markets yesterday was when Bernanke actually provided some details on his plans. Remember, the market hates uncertainty, and that is one of the reasons all of this guesswork by the Administration hasn't helped more to date. We need details - details of how the toxic asset plan may work, details on mortgage modifications, details on additional TARP-like capital injections, etc.

In corporate news, there were some earnings reports. Dollar Tree (DLTR) beat estimates, and that stock is higher. Smucker (SJM) lowered guidance and WYNN missed estimates, and those stocks are lower. Also, Agrium (AGU) has proposed to acquire CF Industries (CF) for a 30% premium to last night's close.

Trading comment: Yesterday I took profits on our short real estate etf (SRS) and added back our short bond etf (TBT) positions. Yesterday's bounce came on solid volume, and should last more than one day, imo. This morning's pullback is a bit disconcerting, but its still early.

long TBT

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