Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Market Quickly Erases Early Declines

Yesterday, the market opened weak, and then climbed throughout the day. This morning, the market was weak once again, but has quickly moved into positive territory. The Nasdaq is leading the way, +1.2% in the early going.

Yesterday's rally came on lighter volume than the previous day's decline, which gave me a bit of pause that it might be a one-day bounce before the selling resumed. But so far today, that notion is being questioned. Although it's still very early.

The reaction to earnings reports has been pretty positive. This morning, Morgan Stanley (MS) missed estimates by a wide margin, which pressured the market before the open, and is weighing on that stock. But other stocks like BA and COF, which also missed estimates, are actually higher this morning.

And for stocks that beat estimates, like YHOO, SNDK, WFC, and MCD, all of those stocks are nicely higher, some by quite a bit. I would also like you to take a look at the charts of stocks like CAT, which missed estimates and opened lower yesterday, but has had a huge 2-day bounce since. Feels like its getting hard to keep a lid on this market.

Asian markets were mixed overnight; the dollar is lower vs. the Euro and Yen today; oil is roughly flat near $48.50, while gold is a touch higher; the 10-year yield is up to 2.95%; and the VIX is -2.5% lower to 36.19.

Trading comment: I did a bit more trimming yesterday, although it feels like that profit taking was premature. Such is life with trading. You have to forget about trying to time the market perfectly, and simply focus on trading profitably. You may miss some big moves in the market here and there, but there are always more opportunities, that's for certain.

I still want to get in on some individual names like GS and RIMM, but am hesitant to chase them. Ditto for some of the ETFs I mentioned yesterday. Just sitting on my hands for now.


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