Monday Morning Musings

The market is under some heavy selling pressure this morning. Energy and materials stocks are down the most, as commodity prices fall. Utilities and staples are down the least, but all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are lower so far.

There is a tendency for the market to be weak on the Monday following options expiration, so some of this weakness could be stemming from that. Otherwise there is not much in the way of market moving news.

The World Bank cut its forecast for global growth, and said that developed economies would be weaker than previously forecast. Also, George Soros told Reuters that the worst of the global economic crisis is over.

It was reported over the weekend that Steve Jobs had a liver transplant 2 months ago. AAPL stock is -1.8% lower, and the reaction to the news is mixed. He is still slated to come back to work at the end of June, although it may not be full time work.

Drug stocks are lower after drug makers agreed to help cut Medicare drug costs. Oil & gas stocks are weak as oil falls -3.5% to near $67. Gold stocks are also lower, as gold prices are under pressure due to a stronger dollar today.

Asian markets were higher overnight, amid news that new lending in mainland China accelerated in June; the 10-year yield is lower to 3.71%; and the VIX is spiking +13% higher this morning to 31.65, though still below its 50-day average.

Trading comment: The 2-month SPX 875-950 range is still intact. Today, we are testing the 900 level, which is right around where the 200-day average resides. A down day today pushes the market further into oversold territory, but I continue to think this sets us up for a bounce into quarter end.

The market quickly fell -2.0% today, and I have bought some stocks/etfs to play for an intraday bounce. I bought a little FCX and RIMM again, and also some SSO to play the S&P 500. Many of the energy and materials stocks have pulled back quite a bit, and could make for some good bounce candidates soon.

long AAPL, FCX, RIMM, SSO