Thursday, August 27, 2009

Stocks Nonplussed By Today's Economic Data

The market finally seems to be selling off. I say "finally" because I would have thought after peaking and getting overbought earlier this week, we would have seen a big down day earlier in the week. But the market kept hanging around, and it seemed like even though the bears pressed, they couldn't really knock it down.

This morning's GDP report was better than expected, and showed that GDP in Q2 fell -1.0%, unrevised from previous estimates, but the consensus was that it would fall to -1.5%.

Jobless claims were mixed, as weekly claims came in a bit higher than expectations (570,000), but continuing claims showed a nice drop, to 6.13 million (down 119,000).

Energy and materials stocks are down the most, as the dollar is higher this morning, and weighing on commodities. Oil is hovering near the $70 level.

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight; the 10-yr yield is at 3.44%; and the VIX is +3.1% higher to 25.74.

Trading comment: I mentioned that I was raising cash earlier this week, but I have not yet put any of it to work today. Volume will likely be very light, as we get deeper into late August and most on Wall St. try to get in some vacation.

There was a big spike in bullishness in the Investor's Intelligence readings yesterday, something I said to watch for as rising complacency would not be good for a selloff. It will be interesting to see what today's AAII readings show. I will keep readers posted.

Also, only in southern Cali does this happen - I have a meeting this morning with a client down in Manhattan Beach. He told me to bring my surfboard, as we are going to go out and catch some waves. Nice.


Post a Comment

<< Home