Friday, September 25, 2009

Happy Friday, Except For The Stock Market

Last night I went to see Australian Pink Floyd play. I think it might have been one of the best cover bands I have ever seen. They played the Nokia Center, and the show was phenomenal. I highly recommend it, if you're a fan.

In the land of flickering ticks, stocks are modestly lower, despite several news items that came in on the negative side of the ledger. First, Research In Motion (RIMM) reported an okay earnings report last night, but the negative reaction this morning is intense, driving the stock some -15% lower. I think that is an overreaction, and I will post my comments from the conference call (done for later.

There were also some weaker than expected economic reports. Durable goods for August decreased -2.4%, well below the +0.4% increase expected. New home sales for August came in at a rate of 429,000, which is a little below expectations of 440,000.

Last, there was some chest puffing by Iran, who admitted to having a second nuclear facility. Does anyone else find the timing of the announcement nicely planned ahead of the Jewish holiday on Monday?

The dollar is giving back some of its gains this morning, which is boosting oil prices ($66.50), but not helping gold prices, which are back down near $993.

Asian markets were lower across the board overnight; the 10-year yield is also lower to 3.36%; and the VIX is slightly higher to 25.47.

Trading comment: The market has now pulled back roughly 3-3.5% from its intraday highs this week. I am not looking for much more of a correction than that, at least not at this point, so I would look to use further weakness as an opportunity to put some cash to work.

There are several "ifs" that could continue to pressure the market (like China continuing to fall, the dollar spiking and commodities tanking, etc.), but bearish sentiment is on the rise again and if it continues to spike, I see this pullback playing out like the many that have come before it in recent months.

long RIMM


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