Monday, October 19, 2009

Monday Morning Musings

The market is bouncing higher this morning after Friday's lackluster session. The S&P 500 is actually right back at its highs for the year, with broad participation among the various sectors.

There was not a whole lot of news this morning. BB&T reported better-than-expected earnings, but the is lower nonetheless. Apple (AAPL) reports after the close. I think their earnings report will be very solid, but remember that they always give very conservative guidance, and that usually knocks the stock down after the report. If this occurs again, it will probably be another good dip to buy before year-end.

Earnings season will be in full force all week, starting with AAPL tonight, and continuing with YHOO, AMGN, EBAY, AMZN, BRCM, and MSFT during the week (just to name a few).

Asian markets were mixed overnight. Officials in China said the country's GDP grew more than 7% during the first 9 months of the year, and is on track to surpass forecasts.

The dollar is lower again today, boosting oil prices north of $78.50, and gold prices back above $1052; the 10-year yield is a bit lower to 3.41%; and the VIX is near at its lows for the year touching the 21.0 level.

Trading comment: I thought we might see at least another multi-day pullback, but right now the SPX is making new highs for the year, after pulling back for just one day. The put/call ratios got awfully low last week, and every other time we have seen the p/c ratios get that low, the market has taken a hit soon after. This is one thing that is keeping me from chasing stocks here, in addition to the fact that the market is once again overbought. I think that a better buying opportunity still lies ahead.

long AAPL, VXX

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