Consumer Confidence Up Ahead of Black Friday

The market is lower this morning, but not in any major way. Asian markets sold off overnight, and the dollar is up a bit, so some selling is not surprising.

In economic news, third quarter GDP was revised lower to +2.8% from an initial estimate of +3.5%. The revision was widely expected, so not much of a market mover. Also, the CaseShiller Home Price Index came in at 146.5 for September, which was basically in-line. The Composite for prices fell -9.4%, which is an improvement from the previous month's -11.3% decline.

The bright spot this morning was the Consumer Confidence Index for November, which rose to 49.5 vs. 47.5 consensus. This is timely as it comes just a few days before Black Friday. I think those people that go to the crowded stores are crazy. I deal with enough traffic in LA without subjecting myself to bigger crowds. That said, I hope retailers do well, and have a good Holiday season. Hopefully consumers have been in saving mode for most of the year, so they are "in shape" to spend a little for the holidays.

In corporate news, HP reported a solid quarter, while med tech behemoth Medtronic (MDT) had a great quarter and its stock spiked higher this morning.

Asian markets were lower overnight, after Chinese regulators warned about higher bank capital ratios; the dollar is up a bit, while oil and gold prices lower; the 10-year yield is lower at 3.35%; and the VIX is also lower to 20.85.

Trading comment: The 1100 level for the S&P was resistance, but not looks to have turned into support. If the market can hold these levels, I think there could be more upside from here and would look for new highs. Keep doing more of what's working, and less of what isn't.