The 6th Annual 'In The Money' Investor Poll
This is the 6th year that I have been conducting an investor poll. There are numerous polls taken each year, where the Wall Street strategists make their predicitons for the year head, but I wanted to see how the group of portfolio managers and traders that I speak with on a regular basis stack up in terms of their outlooks.
In most of the years past, our pollsters have been fairly subdued in their forecasts. From 2005 - 2008, the average forecast for the group as a whole was for the market to rise in the low-to-mid single digits. Last year (2009) was the first time the group's average forecast reached double-digits (+14%), although it still proved conservative.
Last year's winner was the astute Rob Fraim, who forecast the S&P 500 would finish the year at 1111 (it closed at 1115). Rob win's dinner at one of LA's hippest establishments. All he has to do is come out to LA to collect. (Hope to see you soon)
This year (for 2010), the group is back to their relative conservatism. The average forecast in our poll is for the S&P 500 to finish the year at 1200 (+7.7%). This compares to the average Wall St. strategist forecast (compiled by Bloomberg) for the S&P 500 to finish at 1223 (+9.7%). The range of forecasts I got are from SPX 952 on the lowside all the way to 1477 on the high end.
I also asked participants to give me their prediction for where the yield on the 10-year T-Note would finish the year. The average forecast there was 4.48% (with a range from 3.00% to 6.00%).
Congrats to our winner, and thank you to everyone who participated.
Good luck, and happy trading in 2010!