Monday, March 22, 2010

Monday Morning Musings

The market is shrugging off some potentially negative headlines so far today, including the passage of the healthcare bill, monetary tightening in India, and renewed concerns over Greece.

Healthcare stocks are higher after the House of Representatives approved a Senate bill overhauling the U.S. health-care system, handing President Barack Obama a key victory. House lawmakers voted 219-212 to approve the reform bill, a wide-ranging measure aimed at extending insurance coverage to about 32 million Americans. The legislation costs $940 billion over 10 years. Congressional analysts estimate it will cut the deficit by $138 billion during that period. No House Republicans voted for the Senate bill, which now goes to Obama for signature. 34 Democrats also voted against it.

Asian markets were lower overnight after the Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates for the first time in nearly two years. Policy makers said containing inflation has become "imperative". Also, European bourses were lower after German Chancellor Merkel's remarks that Greece doesn't need financial support.

The dollar is higher on the euro's weakness, which is weighing on commodities. Oil and gold are both more than -1% lower, trading near $79.50 and $1095, respectively.

In corporate news, the Financial Times is reporting that Google (GOOG) could reveal as early as today its closure of its Chinese search business.

The 10-year yield is lower to 3.66%; and the VIX is 1.6% higher to 17.23.

Trading comment: The market has continued to work off its recent overbought condition by mostly trading in a sideways consolidation fashion. This is a bullish resolution to being overbought, as opposed to experiencing a sharp pullback. I would like to see further consolidation this week which could set us up for another push higher into quarter end.

Leading growth stocks also continue to hold up well, despite having become somewhat extended on the charts after their recent runs higher. I would point to the action in these stocks as being a better leading indicator of what the overall market is likely to do, so in that sense I remain constructive.

long GOOG

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