Soft Earnings, Guidance Hitting Retail Stocks

The market is lower in early trading. It would be interesting if we could see a reverse of the recent pattern of strong opens and weak closes, with the market opening weak today but finishing on a strong note.

The Fed met yesterday and left interest rates unchanged. But they did lower their forecast for growth a bit. The market often does not have a big move on the day the Fed meets, but then experiences larger moves the next day. That could be playing out today.

In economic news, durable goods orders for May fell -1.1%, less than expected. Orders ex-transportation rose +0.9%, and figures for the prior month were revised upward. Initial jobless claims for last week slightly better than expectations.

In corporate news, Darden (DRI) and ConAgra (CAG) missed estimates, while NKE was in-line and BBBY was above estimates. But guidance was soft, and all of the stocks are lower today. The retail index (XRT) is down the most so far, falling -2.75%.

Among the sector ETFs, financials are weakest (-1.72%) followed by energy (-1.66%); utilities are down the least (-0.10%), then healthcare (-0.58%). Real estate is also getting hit by -2.62%.

The dollar is roughly flat. Gold is higher to $1237, while oil prices are lower to $75.95.

The 10-year yield is hitting new 52-week lows at 3.07%, not a sign of confidence on the part of the bond market. The VIX is up another +9.6% to 29.50. I view the VIX over 30 as a signal that investors are expecting big whipsaws in the market.

Asian markets were mostly lower overnight, but not by a lot. Europe is lower this morning, and the bad news seems to be percolating there again, as credit default swap yields are rising, with Greek CDS near record highs.

Trading comment: I have commented that the news and credit indicators I follow were flashing caution signals. That is why I haven't gotten overly bullish recently, despite the intermittent rallies. The S&P and Nasdaq are both back below their respective 200-day averages, and the flight to safety trade (US dollar, gold, Treasuries) looks to be back in force. Be careful out there.

long GLD, VXX