Happy 'Friday the 13th'
The market is roughly flat in early trading. If the index closed here, the S&P 500 would be down roughly -3.5% for the week. Interestingly, since the July 2 lows, the market has not been able to put in 2 consecutive up weeks or down weeks in a row. This demonstrates the push-pull that is in place right now between the bulls and bears.
The August Consumer Confidence Survey came in in-line at 69.6, which is up from last month's reading of 67.8. And advance retail sales rose slightly less than expectations at +0.4%.
Asian markets were mixed overnight. Hong Kong fell slightly after news that Q2 GDP grew 1.4% there last quarter, less than expected. China rose 1.2% overnight. There were also GDP reports in Germany and France this morning, with Germany's GDP rising 2.2% in Q2. Europe's markets were also down a bit this morning.
The dollar is trading higher again today, capping off a very solid week for the greenback. This could be weighing on commodity prices, with both gold ($1213) and oil ($75.60) prices down slightly.
The 10-year yield is lower, back down near its recent lows at 2.71%; and the volatility index (VIX) is roughly flat at 25.75.
Trading comment: The SPX is still hovering below its 50-day average. Given this week's sharp pullback, I would not be surprised to see a bounce next week. But I think that unless the market rallies back above its 200-day moving average, we are likely back into trading at the lower end of the recent trading range. As such, I am holding off on new buys right now, and will look for a better buying opportunity at lower levels.
long GLD, VXX