Gold Breaks Out To New Highs

The market is a little lower in early trading, which is not surprising given the recent gains. Economic data was mixed this morning, with jobless claims a little better than expected but the Philly Fed Index below expectations.

FedEx (FDX) also weighted on the pre-market after posting an earnings miss and issuing mixed guidance for next quarter and 2011.

Among the sector ETFs, nearly all are lower so far, except for materials (XLB) which are bucking the trend after Eastman Chemical (EMN) raised its earnings outlook. Energy (-0.62%) is the biggest laggard so far, but its still early.

The euro is bouncing, at the expense of the dollar, after two successful bond auctions in Spain. Hopefully this will help push down some of the CDS prices on W. Europe which have been on the rise lately (namely Portugal).

Asian markets were lower overnight, led by China which fell -1.9%. Commodities are mixed, with oil lower to $75 but gold breaking out to new highs above $1272. Gold hasn't gotten as much fanfare as it did last year, but I think the stories will heat up now that it is back to new highs. One big gold company yesterday said that it plans to remove all of its price hedges by next year. Moves like this, along with continued buying by central banks, should continue to support the yellow metal.

The 10-year yield is higher to 2.76%; and the volatility index (VIX) is up to 22.72.

Trading comment: Despite being overbought, the market continued to push higher yesterday. Bullish sentiment is on the rise, with the bulls in the AAII poll rising sharply this week. Those ingredients make it more likely that we will experience a pullback shortly. This week is also options expiration week, which could be exerting some influence on stocks. I remain of the opinion that I want to look for opportunities to put cash to work on pullbacks, but I want to remain patient until we actually get one.

long VXX