Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Quick Look: Dollar Up, Stocks & Commodities Down

The market is under heavy selling pressure this morning, following lingering concerns over European sovereign debt as well as interest rate hikes in Asia. Greece is in the news again as there is debate about the Greek funding situation, as some members of the EU don't think Greece is doing enough to address its problems.

Asian markets were down overnight, after Korea raised interest rates to 2.5%. This stoked fears that China will tighten rates further as well. The dollar is higher on the weak euro, and this combined with fears of China slowing is hitting commodities pretty hard. Gold prices are back down to $1350 and oil has pulled back to $83.10.

The 10-year yield is up again to 2.94%. This has to bug the Fed. And the VIX is surging +11.1% to 22.45, back above its 50-day average.

One bright spot its Urban Outfitters (URBN), which we added last week. The company reported in-line earnings, but the stock had already pulled back so much that it is spiking higher today, +11% so far this morning. Not bad.

Trading comment: This is why I always say to keep some powder dry. You never know how long a selloff will last, or how far it will pullback. Volume today will be key, to see how much selling pressure there is. I also will be monitoring the put/call ratios to see if there is a jump in bearish sentiment.

Technically, the major indexes have broken their 20-day averages, but are not yet at support at their 50-days. I think most stocks will pull back to their respective 50-days, so I want to be patient and wait for those levels to buy into.

long URBN


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