Thursday, December 23, 2010

Bullish Sentiment Continues To Grow

The market is only slightly lower in early trading, after finishing higher again yesterday. I can only find a couple of down days this month. And the polls that are coming out with the strategists predictions for 2011 are pretty much universally bullish.

The weekly AAII poll that came out today showed bulls up to 63.3% and bears down to 16.4%. I haven't looked yet, but I'm pretty sure that's the most bullish reading we've seen since the market top in 2007 (I'll have to confirm that).

Asian markets were mixed overnight, as concern continues to linger surrounding the Korean peninsula. Europe was flattish this morning, with the sovereign debt issues there still a factor. There are always red flags on the horizon, the difficult part of the equation is figuring out if and when investors will worry to the extent that they begin to sell because of it.

The dollar is flattish again, and commodities are mixed. Oil is a bit higher to $90.70, while gold prices are trading down to $1375.

The 10-year yield is higher to 3.38%; and the volatility index is 4% higher to 16.10.

Trading comment: I am not doing all that much trading at this juncture, hoping that the market holds up into year-end, and I can look to do a little more trimming and raise a little more cash after 12/31. That would allow me to defer additional capital gains for another year, which is always preferable.

long VIX calls


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