Thursday, December 09, 2010

Stocks Refuse To Go Down Easily

The early tone of trading is generally positive this morning, as the market is up slightly. Newsflow has been generally light, although this morning's jobless claims numbers were better than expected.

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, while Europe is up this morning. England's central bank held rates steady at 0.50% and maintained the size of its asset purchase program at 200 billion pounds. Ireland had its debt rating cut by Fitch to BBB+.

The dollar is roughly flat so far, while gold is bouncing back to $1391 and oil is near flat at $88.45.

The 10-yr yield had a huge 2-day rally up to 3.33%, but today is pulling back to 3.22%. The volatility index continues to hover at low levels around 17.60.

Trading comment: The equity put/call ratio has been very low the last 3 days, which often raises a red flag for the market. I sold some things yesterday, and I know a lot of people who are watching this and expected the market to selloff because of it. I am not so sure of the timing. I still feel that this month dips will be quickly bought into year end. But if we get a real sharp selloff, it is possible that it could shake the confidence of the dip buyers.

That said, I do think that the rising complacency shown in these put/call ratios will lead to a selloff at some point. Maybe it will be a January event. With volatility levels as low as they are now, one can certainly buy protection in the options market cheaply. Just food for thought. But in case you are wondering, I am not abandoning my call to stick with the growth leaders of this market.

1 Comments:

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