Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Consolidating Yesterday's Gains

There isn't much new in the way of market moving news this morning. The market is only slightly lower in early trading, after yesterday's outsized gains. Sentiment is still improving due to the absence of headlines suggesting any deterioration in the Libya and Japan situations.

I haven't seen any economic reports moving the market. In corporate news, Walgreen's (WAG) reported a slightly disappointing quarter and its stock is lower.

Asian markets were higher overnight, led by a 4.4% surge in Japan. The dollar is up a bit today, which is weighing on most commodities, but oil and gold are both higher. Oil prices are back up to $103.50, and gold prices are just below $1430.

The 10-year yield is higher to 3.33%; and the VIX is down another 2% back to 20.20.

Trading comment: I spent $60 to fill my tank last night, and I don't even want to know how much my wife is spending to fill the SUV she drives. This type of sticker shock will start to affect the psyche of the average consumer, and doesn't bode well for consumer spending, especially if it lasts until we get into the summer driving season. So that's something to watch.

But in the near-term, the S&P 500 hit resistance at its overhead 50-day average (near 1300). Healthy action would be for the market to consolidate here for a little bit, and then make a successful stab through that overhead resistance. In the absence of further bad news, I could see this happening. Bearish sentiment got a little heated, and we also have quarter-end approaching where portfolio managers will look to put money to work and do some window dressing, and hedge funds will cover shorts that are under pressure.

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