Friday, April 08, 2011

Govt. Tries To Avoid A Shutdown

The market is trading flattish so far this morning, opening slightly higher but falling back below the flat line since then. CNBC is airing Capitol Hill and the effort to avoid a govt. shutdown today, but I don't think this has a big impact on the markets today. Weakness in the dollar is supporting commodities, which is where the action has been all week. The CRB Index is up roughly 1.3% for the week, compared to the S&P 500 which is exactly flat. Oil prices are higher again today, topping the $110 level and reaching $111.33. Gold prices are also up again, hitting $1471. Corn, wheat, and soybean prices are also rallying. Asian markets were higher overnight, despite another earthquake in Japan. The Nikkei actually rallied +1.9%, a very strong showing. The 10-year yield is breaking above its recent trading range, hitting a one-month high at 3.59%. And the VIX is flat near 17.14. Other than that, there is not much market moving news today. Energy shares are higher so far, and leading the market, while financials and industrials are lagging. Trading comment: I expect today's action to be fairly lackluster. Oil prices remain too high for a big rally to ensue. But at the same time, we have seen the market bend a couple of times this week, but not break. My guess is that we close down slightly on the day. But as I have said, this isn't a bad setup as we head into earnings season next week, and should make for some better buy setups. Google (GOOG) reports next Thursday, and with the stock pulling back as much as it has, I think shares should react favorably barring any surprises in their earnings announcement. We will also hear from some of the biggest banks, like JPMorgan (JPM) and BofA (BAC). long BAC, GOOG, JPM


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