Monday, May 09, 2011

Monday Morning Musings

The market is a touch lower in early trading, after mixed action overnight in Asia but much weaker action this morning in Europe.

Spain fell 1.9% and Greece was down 1.4% after S&P downgraded Greece's debt again amid concerns the country would need more bailout funds.

This also has led to a slide in the euro relative to the dollar. But the bounce in the dollar isn't keeping commodities from bouncing also. Oil prices are up near $99.50, after falling more than 14% last week. Silver prices are up 5% after plummeting 27% last week. And gold is also getting a little bounce to $1505. The action in commodities was so vicious last week that I think at best they are going to be in multi-month trading ranges from here.

There is not a lot of action in the way of corporate earnings this morning. Energy and materials stocks are leading the action so far, while financials are lagging.

The 10-year is still weak near 3.14%; and the VIX is down 2% today to 18.0.

Trading comment: So far the S&P 500 has successfully tested that 1335-1340 support levels. The market is also getting back to oversold levels, but has a little more work to do. I don't get the sense the market is ready to rally yet in any meaningful way, but I still want to be a buyer on weakness as I feel the downside is limited as well.


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