Friday, June 17, 2011

Markets Try To End Volatile Week On A Strong Note

The markets are higher in early trading, but can they hang on to the gains and put an end to the 6-week losing streak?

Economic data was mixed this morning, with the Consumer Sentiment Survey coming in below estimates at 71.8, but Leading Indicators rising more than expected at +0.8%, which is a big turnaround from last months -0.3% decline.

Plans to move quicker to stabilize Greece's fiscal position has helped improve the tone in Europe. The euro is sharply higher, while the dollar is lower.

Commodities are mixed, with oil prices falling back below $93.50, but gold prices rallying near $1537.

The 10-year yield is also bouncing to 2.95%. I think if it got over 3% we could see the equity rally pick up steam. The VIX is down -6.5% currently to 21.26. Yesterday the VIX had a huge spike, which indicates that fear in the market may have finally peaked.

Trading comment: Yesterday we saw continued spikes in all of the fear gauges I monitor. I wrote a column on how bearish sentiment is getting, and how it compares to prior market bottoms. I plan to re-post it here on our blog later today, so check back. But suffice it to say that the ingredients for more than a one-day rally are taking shape. So I want to be patient about doing more selling until we see some sort of bounce.


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