Friday, September 16, 2011

Early Look: Europe Considering TALF-like Program

The markets have been volatile again in early trading. Coming off the heels of very solid rallies in Asia and Europe, our markets began to climb in the first hour of trading but so far traders have sold into that rally and pushed the indexes back to the flat line.

It's very possible that folks are nervous about going long into the weekend, given that any piece of bad news to surface out of Europe over the weekend could hit the markets come Monday morning. Also, the markets have put in a very nice week already, with the major indexes up roughly 5% for the week so far.

Asian markets rallied overnight after news that the major central banks would provide dollar liquidity to Euro banks. Europe also rallied again today on news that a TALF-like program is also being considered in Europe.

In economic news, the Consumer Sentiment Survey for August actually rose to 57.8 from 55.7 last month. Go figure, someone must be looking at the silver lining out there.

The dollar is higher today, while commodities are mixed. Oil prices are lower near $88 right now, while gold prices are trying to get back to the $1800 level, still trading slightly below that.

The 10-year yield had a nice rise yesterday, and is hovering near 2.07%; and the VIX came all the way down to 30 this morning before bouncing higher as it approached its 50-day average.

Trading comment: A lot of people are watching key technical levels right now. The SPX needs to get above its late August highs at SPX 1230 to signal more upside. So far today it has been unable to hold the upside momentum. As for the Nasdaq, 2600 has been upside resistance of late. But the growth index is actually above those levels this morning, and sitting right on its 50-day average. Looks like we will have to wait until next week to see if the market can build on this week's gains.


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