Thursday, November 17, 2011

Early Look: Can The U.S. Start To Decouple From Europe

The market had another down open this morning, but as of this post the Dow is back in positive territory. Asian markets were mixed overnight, while Europe is again lower today.

The latest news out of Europe was a disappointing debt auction in Spain. Spanish yields are up to 6.70%, and French yields are a bit higher near 3.71%. Italian yields have eased a touch to 6.97%. Interestingly, the euro is higher on the day.

But the higher euro isn't helping commodities so far. Oil prices are down to a still high $101; gold prices are lower again near $1745; and silver and copper prices are lower as well.

In economic news, jobless claims came in better than expected at 388,000 for the week. And housing starts for October were also greater than expected at 628,000.

The 10-year yield is hovering right at the 2.00% level; and the VIX bounced to 34 where it touched its overhead 50-day average and has since eased back to 32.90.

Trading comment: The S&P 500 has broken below that uptrend level that I showed yesterday (on my blog) and that has been in place since early October. That usually signals more of a correction in store. But I am beginning to wonder if the U.S. markets have priced in the problems in Europe and can manage to climb the wall of worry a bit more into year end. As such, I want to be a buyer on upcoming dips and position myself for further rallies. Of course, this is predicated on nothing further unraveling in Europe. They still need to figure out how to achieve the proposed leverage for the EFSF that has been talked about.

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