Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Are We Starting To Decouple From The Euro?

The markets are mixed this morning, but still doing better than I would have thought given that the euro is lower on the day. I have harped on the fact that whenever the euro was down over the last year you could pretty much bet our markets were down also.

So far this year we are starting to see a little decoupling from that relationship. I know its still early in the year, but so far the euro is down -2.0% since the start of the year while the S&P 500 has gained +2.5%. Hey, it's a start right??

European markets are lower this morning ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow. Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, except for China which pulled back -0.4% after that 2 day surge.

Energy stocks (XLE) are down the most this morning, as oil pulls back near the $100.50 level. Gold prices are higher to $1643. Silver prices are higher also, while copper looks flat right now.

There isn't much in the way of market moving data this morning. Economic reports are light, and earnings season doesn't really kick into high gear until next week.

Trading comment: Recently I commented on the S&P holding solidly above its 200-day average. The two indexes that had yet to retake their 200-days were the S&P 400 Midcap and the Russell 2000 small-cap. But yesterday both of those indexes joined the senior indexes and now all of the major indexes are above their respective 200-day averages. The longer the S&P 500 stays around these levels the closer we get to its 50-day average crossing back above its 200-day average. Traders call this a "golden cross", and it would be another bullish sign for the market.

KAM Advisors and clients are long GLD, SCO


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