Thursday, March 08, 2012

Eurozone Optimistic About Greek Bond Swap

The market is trading higher in early trading, seemingly taking most of its cues from overseas markets. There isn't a whole lot in terms of market moving economic data or corporate news in the U.S. this morning.

Overnight, Asian markets rallied strongly and Europe's markets are nicely higher this morning. There seems to be more confidence right now that Greece will be successful in its effort to conduct its debt swap. This can also been seen in the bond yields of other PIIGS countries which have started to ease a bit.

The ECB and the Bank of England both opted to keep rates at current levels. ECB Pres. Draghi hinted that the ECB could be done with its LTRO operations, and that now it's up to the member countries to take control of their debt situations and deal with them. He said that the ECB has done its part by taking the tail risk off the table.

The euro is also higher this morning at the expense of the dollar. This is helping commodities, with oil prices up to $106.75 and gold prices bouncing near $1695. Copper and silver prices are higher as well.

The 10-year yield is higher today at 1.99%, but still not able to get above that 2.00% level and stay there. As for the VIX, it broke back below its 50-day yesterday and is moving lower again today. Currently it is down -4.75% to 18.15 as fear quickly comes back out of the market.

Trading comment: Yesterday's snapback rally came on very low volume, which will lead many participants to question the conviction behind the buying. It is possible we could see the same type of action today, although it is still early so first we need to see if these early gains stick. Since I have said this year I think it will be more productive to focus on individual stock action and not the major indexes, I am looking for stocks that have already corrected or appear poised to break higher from recent consolidations. Some candidates I am looking at include: SRCL, CTSH, LNKD, BMY, and AGNC to name a few.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AGNC, BMY, CTSH, LNKD, and SRCL


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