Monday, April 16, 2012

Monday Morning Musings: The Streak Is Over

The market opened higher this morning, but quickly reversed such that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reversed into negative territory. But the Dow is still higher as industrials and financials outperform.

The Nasdaq was lower last week which ended its winning streak at 14 weeks. My tracking spreadsheet doesn't go back far enough to show another streak that has lasted that long, but maybe someone else can tell me the last time that occurred.

Apple (AAPL) and Priceline (PCLN) have both rolled over this morning, and Google (GOOG) has broken below its 50-day average. So the Nazz continues to correct and is lagging all of the other major indexes this morning.

Asian markets were lower across the board overnight. I would have expected Europe to be lower, but their markets are actually positive despite Spanish yields moving back above the 6.00% level.

In economic news, retail sales came in better than expected at 0.8% for March, well above the 0.3% estimate. But the Housing Market Index for April fell to 25 from 28 the prior month. It was the first drop in 7 months, but I have heard of weakness in other indexes as well.

In earnings, Citi (C) reported disappointing earnings results but its stock is still higher on the session. This is the opposite reaction we saw last week in JPM and WFC who beat estimates but their stocks fell. All of the above financials are higher today.

The euro is lower vs. the dollar today, which is weighing on commodities. Oil prices are slightly lower near $102, and gold has pulled back to $1650.

The 10-year yield is sinking further to 1.96%. And the VIX had bounced above the 20 level on the early reversal in stocks this morning, but is has since eased back a little to 19.53.

Trading comment: I don't like big up opens in the market that are quickly sold. That is not bullish action. Speaking of bullish action, last week's rally attempts came on lighter volume vs. the down days in the market, so we need to see that pattern reverse. Bulls will want to see the market rally on rising volume, not falling. We have also lost the AAPL/PCLN leadership combo in the Nasdaq. My guess is the S&P is going to take the lead for a bit, but big picture I think the market needs to spend some more time consolidating its multi-month runup over the last several months and that doesn't happen overnight. The wildcard is obviously Europe. If Spanish yields continue to rise and the market gets spooked, then we could see a deeper correction like we did last year.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AAPL, GOOG, JPM, PCLN, and WFC


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