Tuesday, May 01, 2012

1st Day Of The Month Effect

The market is nicely higher in early trading.  There was a strong manufacturing report this morning which helped boost the market, the strong reactions to earnings reports were also helping.  Does it feel like the first day of the month is always an up day in the market?

In economic news, the latest ISM Manufacturing index came in above expectations at 54.8, which is higher than the 53.4 reading last month.

In earnings news, I am seeing more stocks going up after reporting than falling.  Here are some examples:

Stocks rising on earnings reports:
Stocks rising on earnings reports:

Many foreign markets were closed for holidays overnight, but in Asia Japan was open and suffered a -1.8 loss.  In Europe, the UK is higher despite a weaker than expected PMI manufacturing report.  China's official PMI rose to 53.3, which puts it at the highest level in a year.  But as I have been saying, the govt. PMI figure is consistently higher than the private sector HSBC PMI data.

The dollar is slightly higher, and commodities are mixed.  Oil prices are above the $106 level, while gold prices are a tad weaker near $1663.

The 10-year yield is getting a boost today to 1.95%; and the VIX is down -4.6% to 16.35.

Trading comment: The market continues to act well technically.  We'll have to see if today's early rally lasts into the close and if is accompanied by any volume to speak of.  The S&P mid-cap 400 index is very near breaking to new highs again.  I had expected the market to remain in a trading range for a bit longer, which is still possible.  But remember the old saying that you have to accept the market as it is, and not how you wish it to be. 


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