Wednesday, September 05, 2012

More Signs Of China Slowing

The markets are slightly higher in early trading despite across the board weakness in overseas markets.  The markets got a boost from a Bloomberg TV report that said the ECB is considering a bond purchase program that will be unlimited in size as long as bonds are sterilized.  But don't expect Germany to go along with this so easily.  Already Germany's Christian Democratic Party leader said that excessive ECB bond buying could prove inflationary.

Elsewhere in Europe, Germany's PMI Services index was in-line while France's came in light at 49.2 vs. 50.2 expected.  A number under 50 marks contraction. 

In Asian, markets were lower overnight after China's Services PMI fell to a 1-year low of 52.0.  China's Finance Minister indicated he is not optimistic about the current export situation.  Also, Australia's GDP came in light at 0.6% vs. 0.8% expected.  And Australia's services index fell to 42.4 from 46.5 previously.  So those are all signs that point to slowing global growth. 

In the US, productivity figures were revised higher for Q2 to 2.2% from 1.6% and unit labor costs were revised lower to 1.5% from 1.7%.  So those are datapoints that are moving in the right direction.

In corporate news, Facebook (FB) shares are higher after CEO Zuckerberg said he has no intention to sell any shares for at least 12 months.  Jeffries initiated the stock with a 'Buy' and a price target of $30.

The dollar is weaker today as the euro bounces, and commodities are mixed.  Oil prices are lower to $94.65 while gold prices are flattish near $1695.  Copper prices are higher today.

The 10-year yield is at 1.57% and can't stay above its 50-day average.  The VIX has been down as much as 5% and is currently lower by 3.5% to 17.35.

Trading comment: I will post a chart later that highlights the growing bullish sentiment among investors.  When sentiment usually reaches these bullish levels, it isn't long before another market correction surfaces.  I would not be surprised to see this type of action in the near future.  It could also be that since the market likes to keep the majority of investors off balance, we could see a breakout to new highs first that is short-lived and sets the market up for a correction from that point--  just to keep everyone on their toes.  But the NAAIM investor survey is back to very high levels, and the Citibank panic/euphoria model is back near excessive optimism levels.

KAM Advisors has long positions in FB


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