Thursday, October 04, 2012

ECB Holds Rates Steady

Markets in the US are higher in early trading.  There is not much in the way of market moving news.  Most media outlets will likely attribute this morning's strength to Romney doing well in last night's presidential debate and picking up some points in the polls.  But that is somewhat iffy considering many people have been saying the recent rally has been about the prospects for an Obama reelection. 

Asian markets were higher overnight.  Chinese markets remained closed for the Golden Week holiday.  Japan was higher and Hong Kong was up slightly.

In Europe, markets are a little choppy after the ECB held rates steady at 0.75%.  the Bank of England also left rates unchanged as well as its asset purchase program.  There are some reports saying that the next tranche of Greek aid would be delayed.  In Spain, an auction of short-term debt generally went well and was received with solid demand. 

In the US, factory orders showed a decrease of -5.2% in August, which was slightly better than expected.

In corporate news, more disappointing guidance from HPQ has that stock under pressure again.  NUVA is also down a lot today after lowering guidance.  HMSY is getting hit today also.

The dollar is lower today, which is helping commodities. Oil prices are bouncing to $8930.  Gold prices are also rallying near the $1792 level.  Silver and copper prices are higher as well.

The 10-year yield is up slightly to 1.63%.  And the VIX is down 1% to 15.27.

Trading comment: Lately we have seen that early morning rallies have faded by the end of the day.  We could be setting up for that again today after the markets spiked higher at today's open but have faded a bit since.  Yesterday the SPX once again held that 20-day average that it had been hugging lately.  This morning's high of 1463 is only 2 points below the closing high for the year of 1465.  I still expect to see some further sideways consolidation action before another breakout to new highs, but I could be wrong.  It seems that most of the surprises for the market this year have been on the upside, which continues to cause waves of performance chasing.


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