Friday, November 09, 2012

An End Of Week Bounce For Stocks?

Stocks are trying to muster a bounce in early trading, although it should be noted there is still a lot of time left in this trading session.  Coming into today, the S&P 500 was down -2.6% for the week.  So far it is bouncing roughly 0.5%.  AAPL bulls are also happy that at least for now the stock appears to have found some support and is up $11 so far.

The Univ. of Mich. consumer confidence number surprised everyone to the upside, coming in at 84.9.  That is the highest reading since July 2007.  Can anyone tell me where all this confidence is coming from?  Because it sure isn't being reflected this week in the chart of the S&P 500.

In M&A news, Kayak Software (KYAK) is up more than 25% after being acquired by Priceline for $40 per share.

Stocks rising on earnings: FWLT, COV, NNI, PSA, ENR

Stocks falling on earnings: JCP, AEE, STRA, GTY, GXP

Asian markets remained weak overnight, despite China retail sales and industrial production coming in above expectations.  The Bank of Korea left rates unchanged.

Europe is also seeing weakness this morning after Germany's economics ministry gave a downbeat outlook for the remainder of the year and the Bank of France predicted that French GDP will see a -0.1% decline in Q4.

The dollar is higher for a 3rd day, and commodities are mixed.   Oil prices are flat near $85.10.  Gold prices are slightly higher around $1732.  But copper prices are lower.

The 10-year yield is flat near 1.62%.  And the VIX is down 2% near 18.16.

Trading comment: Yesterday I cautioned that the SPX might have a date with the 200-day moving average.  I didn't think it would break below it by the end of the day, but that is why we show up each day.  If predicting the market were easy, we'd all be calling in our trades from our yachts.  So the SPX closed below its 200-day yesterday, and today is bouncing above it.  The markets are short-term oversold, so I would expect a bounce here.  But I don't like to buy on the first bounce.  I prefer to wait for the market to come down again and hopefully find more solid support, maybe around that 200-day again.  That should offer a better buying opportunity.  I would also like to see more constructive action among market leading stocks.

KAM Advisors has long positions in AEE, PSA, PCLN


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